AAPL Stock: Goldman Sachs Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) analyst Simona Jankowski said their supply chain tracker points to upside for the iPhone so far in 1Q.

“We provide an intra-quarter update on iPhone shipments based on supply chain sales data from Taiwan and government shipments data from China. Overall, both sets of datapoints are positive and imply upside to iPhone estimates for 1Q,” Jankowski commented,

“The six suppliers we track reported average sales up 27% yoy and down 18% mom, above the 3-year average mom seasonality of down 34% (Exhibit 2). For the trailing 2 months (Jan + Feb), sales were up 16% yoy. We maintain our iPhone forecast of 52.8mn units (+3% yoy, -33% qoq) in the March quarter, which is above consensus at 52.1mn units. If the above-seasonal supply chain trends hold, it could imply upside to our March quarter estimates.”

On China, the analyst note: “Based on China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) monthly data release, for the first two months of 2017, smartphone shipments in China grew 12% yoy to 72.8mn. Importantly, Android smartphone shipments grew only 5% yoy to 58.3mn, while non-Android smartphone shipments grew 50% yoy to 14.5mn. This could point to a rebound in iPhone shipments in China, as iPhones comprise the majority of non-Android shipments; however, the data-set can be volatile.”

The article first appeared in streetinsider.com