Destiny 2‘s Iron Banner PvP mode offers players some sweet loot for taking part. In addition to a variety of weapons, players can also receive some Iron Banner armor that has a Samurai theme, but given how stingy engrams in the can be, exactly how long will it take for players to get the full armor set?

One Destiny 2 player has now set out to answer that very question, using the Monte Carlo method (using random sampling to find a numerical answer) to figure out it. The player (a Reddit user who goes by moak0) is working with the idea that there are 13 possible pieces of Iron Banner loot (eight weapons and five pieces of armor), that Iron Banner rewards packages offer one piece of gear, and that there is an equal chance of each piece of gear dropping, regardless of what gear players already have.

After running one million iterations, moak0 explains that the average player will need 29.7 reward packages in order to get all five pieces of armor at least once. The median amount of reward packages needed is actually just 27 and moak0 estimates that 50% of Iron Banner participants will have unlocked the full armor set by then. “The average is higher than the median because a few people will get super unlucky,” moak0 points out.

Destiny 2 Iron Banner Rise of Iron reference

Meanwhile, the average number of reward packages required to get all 13 pieces of gear is 41.3, which should be a disappointment to Destiny 2 fans. Earning 41 reward packages is equivalent to about 164 Iron Banner wins, or 410 losses, while 30 reward packages amount to around 120 wins or 300 losses. Fewer matches will be required if players achieve all three daily Iron Banner challenges, as these dole out an additional 15 tokens.

Many Destiny 2 players had already taken issue with the token rewards system, arguing that Iron Banner actively punishes those who aren’t very good at the game. The grind is far too high for players who are unable to achieve the daily challenges or even for those who are good at the game but cannot carry a four-person fireteam by themselves.

Given that Iron Banner only takes place for a limited time each month (Destiny 2‘s first Iron Banner only runs for a week), players argue that this is just not long enough for them to unlock all of the rewards.

While some may argue that the mode was never set up for players to grind to get it all during one month, others may argue that Destiny 2‘s new season format suggests that more gear could be added during the next Iron Banner. That could skew the odds even more and make it so much harder to get all of the new gear and not a selection of unwanted duplicates.